As the 2026 tourism season moves towards its final stage, one thing has become increasingly clear to me: The market is changing faster than the traditional hotel sales model can afford to ignore. Travelers still want to travel. Demand remains strong. But the traveler has changed. Today’s customer is more informed, more flexible, more price-sensitive, and has more alternatives than ever before — not only when choosing a hotel, but when deciding whether, where, when, and how to travel at all. And that changes the way we need to think about hotel commercial strategy for 2027. A guest is no longer simply buying a room. They are buying the entire trip. Hotel rates, airfares, economic conditions in the source market, geopolitical developments, weather, accessibility, value for money, and the competitive environment all influence the final decision.
2026 showed us that super high season is no longer automatically guaranteed
July and August remain key months for Greek tourism. But high demand does not mean that the market will absorb any price. High accommodation rates, combined with expensive air travel, have made travelers more cautious and more willing to compare, wait, and book later. This has contributed to more flexible and, in many cases, more last-minute booking behavior. At the same time, September continues to gain commercial importance. For many travelers, it offers a highly attractive combination: warm sea temperatures, milder weather, less congestion and often better overall value. This means that seasonality should no longer be managed purely according to the calendar. A weak August pickup should not automatically lead to higher rates simply because it is August. And a strong September should not be priced conservatively simply because it has traditionally been considered shoulder season. The market is redefining the boundaries between high and shoulder season.
Weather in the source markets is becoming part of the commercial equation
One of the most interesting developments of recent years is the impact of weather conditions in Central and Western Europe. When travelers already experience very warm summers at home, the motivation to pay premium airfares and high hotel prices for a traditional Sun & Sea holiday may weaken for part of the market. That does not necessarily mean they stop travelling. They may simply travel differently. They may choose a destination they can reach by car or train. They may take a shorter trip. They may choose another type of holiday. Or they may move their Sun & Sea holiday to September.
For Greece, this creates both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is a very expensive super high season. The opportunity is the further development of May, June, September and October. A hotel no longer competes only with the hotel next door. This also changes the meaning of competition. Every hotel still needs a carefully selected hotel competitive set. Rates, availability, restrictions, offers, reviews, positioning, and direct booking benefits must all be monitored. But for 2027, there is another layer: the destination competitive set. A hotel in Crete is not only competing with another hotel in Crete, Rhodes, Kos, or Turkey. For a German, Austrian, or Dutch traveler, it may also be competing with a completely different holiday that can be reached by car or train, with a lower total travel cost.
The question is no longer only: “Which hotel will the guest choose?”
It is also: “Will they choose Greece? Will they choose Sun & Sea? And will they travel in August or at another time of year?”
Tour Operators remain important — but they are changing too
For Greece, and especially for resort and seasonal hotels, Tour Operators remain an essential part of the distribution mix. Contracts, contracted rates, allotments and release periods can provide stability, access to important source markets and, in many cases, links to flight programs and secured airline seats. But Tour Operators are no longer operating only through the traditional static package model. They are investing in online platforms, apps, dynamic packaging, dynamic connectivity, and direct digital relationships with travelers.
In other words: The traditional Tour Operator is increasingly becoming a digital retailer.
And this means that in 2027, a Tour Operator can be both a distribution partner and a competitor for the same online customer. The answer is not Direct vs OTA vs Tour Operator This is why I believe the commercial discussion needs to move beyond the old channel debate.
The question is not: Direct or OTA or Tour Operator?
The real question is: What is the right business mix for this hotel, this period, and this level of demand?
A Tour Operator contracted rate of €150 can be an excellent sale during a low-demand period. The same €150 can be a poor commercial decision if the room has been committed during dates when the market had a realistic potential to pay €230 or €250. This is why ADR alone does not tell the full story. The real focus should increasingly be on Net Revenue. What actually remains with the hotel after commissions, discounts, marketing costs, acquisition costs, and the commercial impact of inventory decisions.
Direct sales are becoming strategically more important
The official hotel website should no longer be treated as a digital brochure. It is a sales channel. The customer who reaches the official website after searching on an OTA, Google, social media, or AI may already be very close to making a decision. They do not only need beautiful photographs. They need a reason to book. That reason may be better cancellation terms, a direct booking benefit, parking, transfer, late check-out, an upgrade subject to availability, a package, or simply a stronger value proposition.
Direct does not always have to mean: “I am cheaper.”
It should mean: “I offer greater value when you book directly with me.”
Recent trends in the Greek hotel market also show continued growth in direct online business, reinforcing the importance of the website as an active commercial channel rather than simply a presentation tool. But that does not mean replacing OTAs.
The goal is still the same: the right distribution mix.
AI is entering the travel journey
And then there is AI. By 2027, the question will no longer be only: “Do we have good SEO?” Hotels will increasingly need to ask: “Can an AI system understand who we are, what we offer, who we are relevant to, and why we should be recommended?” Room descriptions, amenities, location, policies, reviews, structured data, photography and clear positioning will become even more important. AI may increasingly influence discovery. But technology alone will not close the sale. Technology can recommend. Trust still sells.
2027 will require scenario planning, not only forecasting
Perhaps the biggest lesson of 2026 is that historical data alone is no longer enough. “Last year we had 70% occupancy at this point” is useful information. It is not a strategy.
For 2027, hotels need to think in scenarios.
- What happens if airfares increase from a key source market?
- What happens if a Tour Operator reduces its program?
- What happens if a new flight route opens?
- If August pickup slows?
- If September starts booking earlier?
- If a competing destination becomes significantly cheaper?
- If economic or geopolitical conditions shift demand suddenly?
The commercial strategy needs to be able to adapt quickly.
- Pricing.
- Restrictions.
- Availability.
- Offers.
- Channel mix.
- Inventory.
Revenue, Sales, Distribution, and Marketing can no longer operate separately
This, to me, is one of the most important shifts going into 2027.
- Revenue cannot operate without Sales.
- Sales cannot sign Tour Operator contracts without understanding forecast and revenue potential.
- Digital Marketing cannot run campaigns without knowing availability, pricing, and conversion.
- Distribution cannot open or close channels without understanding acquisition cost.
Everything is connected:
Price → Demand → Channel → Cost → Conversion → Net Revenue.
The biggest trend for 2027 is adaptability
If there is one thing I take from the 2026 season, it is this:
The biggest trend for 2027 is not a new channel. It is adaptability.
- Knowing when a contract provides security and when it limits revenue potential.
- Knowing when to protect inventory and when to stimulate demand.
- Monitoring competitors without copying them.
- Looking beyond the hotel competitive set and understanding destination competition.
- Following flights, source markets, seasonality, and the total cost of travel.
- Combining technology, data, and human commercial judgement.
Because in 2027, the winner will not necessarily be the hotel with the highest ADR.
It will be the hotel that makes better commercial decisions, faster. The right business mix. – At the right price. – Through the right channel. – At the right time. And with the strongest possible Net Revenue.
That, for me, is what hotel commercial strategy for 2027 is really about.